New Medici 2011 Predictions
- Cords will be cut – cable and satellite companies will have to package internet bandwidth with channel programming to keep sub fees north of $100. Cable and other triple players will move to provide bandwidth to all devices – think Mifi for everything as an upsell with loss of cable. In 2012, all television programming will be available day and date via web/mobile.
- Netflix will double (or more) its sub base with streaming model, and become an even higher value acquisition target; it now currently needs to figure out social media to close all gaps with Amazon.
- Resurfacing of digital media IPOs (or accretive acquisitions): think Spotify with US penetration, Facebook, Zynga, Groupon, Flipboard and possibly Pandora.
- Music and media discovery will be most valuable digital utility, with people programming their lives – and transparently tracking their consumption (personal CRM or our “time clock” theory), which will be shared, of course, via social media.
- 3D will rise at home, decrease in theaters – more television programming and surplus of high quality 3DTVs with many ITV channels also moving into 3D to differentiate.
- Apple will ditch optical drives on all but highest end laptops (wireless/Bluetooth SuperDrives to follow; Apple to move into 5TB home networks servers and own cloud ecosystem) and desktops. iPad 2 with 3G/4G package will sell 1.5x original unit and knock out all touch players save Android. iPad 2 will merge video UGC with ARG successfully, e.g., users will connect via video conference to engage with branded content. Video conferences will become programming when edited right.
- Film studios will drift away from traditional sequels/remakes and renaissance with new franchises – think next Harry Potter, Dark Knight, Hangover.
- Ad agencies and major lifestyle/consumer brands will dive into social media acquisitions, create more innovation incubators and buy consumer content/video sites to roll-up audiences. Think Y Combinator owned by Adidas. Similarly, talent agencies will launch incubators to find next production/distribution efficiencies and create more and more backend strategies versus faltering pay or play.
- In the gaming world, “Angry Birds” success will be remodeled (usually badly), but will also create new initiatives to merchandise media on a 360 level, i.e., games, films, tv will finally leverage their assets fully outside of release windows. Pop-up events will be “demanded” as exclusive media and merch will be next big thing.
- Digital content will become vastly more personalized. Once discovered (see #4), smartly aggregated and tied into social (e.g., Flipboard), users will start visiting fewer and fewer niche sites, plus heavy Facebook…
Facebook: Transparency and Personality
The New Yorker puts together a great “Letters From” series, and Facebook’s press team is smart to begin promoting a POV (“Letters from Palo Alto”) from Zuckerberg and others (Vanity Fair’s “With a Little Help From His Friends” piece on former Facebook President Sean Parker written by Facebook Effect writer David Kirkpatrick).
Whether these personality pieces are timed to upstage (or upstate) Sony’s “The Social Network” film is an interesting question, but more importantly it reveals individual depth on the 21st century’s next media king: Mark Zuckerberg. (Of added note, Zuck is #1 on Vanity Fair’s top 100 media power list). Read more >>
CAA Exit Package: $250M from KKR
Private equity is interested in the agency business, most likely because of their spin-off businesses in sports – is sports the new Hollywood model? – and less due to the changing value of talent in the media marketplace.
Via Deadline: Is this the beginning of the end of another Hollywood agency era? My sources tell me that, after months and months of negotiations with potential financial partners pursued by CAA, the agency has focused on KKR – Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co, the NYC-based private equity firm.
Via WSJ: The KKR investment would come at a tough time for Hollywood talent agencies, whose commissions have faltered. Plummeting DVD sales and the credit crunch have left studios cutting back on the number of shows and films they produce. This has limited work for actors and directors that agents represent, leading the agencies to explore new avenues of growth. Read more >>
3Dios: Next Steps for 3D Film
From this morning’s 3D Next conference in Los Angeles, a diverse panel from Michael Stroud/ iHollywood on the future of 3D films.
The 3D industry that has created quite a boon for studios and exhibitors, while creating an area of potential upsell or backlash for consumers.
Panel: Next Steps for 3D Film: In the wake of the huge success of Avatar and Alice in Wonderland, 3D appears to have a secure future in cinema. The question is just how big: the appeal outside of kids, sci fi and horror remains unclear; and there’s still the dearth of theaters. An examination of the likely future.
Highest Paid CEOs, Disney’s Iger #3
Associated Press recently listed its highest-paid CEOs for 2008 list with only one media appointment: Bob Iger of The Walt Disney Company in 3rd place with $51.1 million. With the majority of the top 10 being finance and industrial-based, it’s interesting to see that media/content still has a hold on the environment. With ESPN’s continued growth, Pixar integration, Disney’s recent partnership with NBC/Fox’s Hulu, teen-star “Hannah Montana” and “High School Musical” talent factories, the start of DisneyNature and relatively strong film and tv revenues, not to mention the ongoing international expansion, Disney is running a very diversified content business in a market favoring global tech-based scalability. Alongside a News Corp/20th Century Fox model that slants toward print, news and politics, Disney has maintained a clean global brand while expanding in tech. And, although it’s a big compensation foothold in Iger’s case, it speaks to the power of entertainment and its role in innovating the US. If one of our bigger exports is entertainment, shouldn’t those who drive branded expansion be rewarded? After the jump, a breakdown of the other CEO list-makers and the New Medici “3Ways” to continue innovation… Read more >>