New Medici 2011 Predictions

1. Cords will be cut – cable and satellite companies will have to package internet bandwidth with channel programming to keep sub fees north of $100. Cable and other triple players will move to provide bandwidth to all devices – think Mifi for everything as an upsell with loss of cable. In 2012, all television programming will be available day and date via web/mobile.
2. Netflix will double (or more) its sub base with streaming model, and become an even higher value acquisition target; it now currently needs to figure out social media to close all gaps with Amazon.
3. Resurfacing of digital media IPOs (or accretive acquisitions): think Spotify with US penetration, Facebook, Zynga, Groupon, Flipboard and possibly Pandora.
4. Music and media discovery will be most valuable digital utility, with people programming their lives – and transparently tracking their consumption (personal CRM or our “time clock” theory), which will be shared, of course, via social media.
5. 3D will rise at home, decrease in theaters – more television programming and surplus of high quality 3DTVs with many ITV channels also moving into 3D to differentiate.
6. Apple will ditch optical drives on all but highest end laptops (wireless/Bluetooth SuperDrives to follow; Apple to move into 5TB home networks servers and own cloud ecosystem) and desktops. iPad 2 with 3G/4G package will sell 1.5x original unit and knock out all touch players save Android. iPad 2 will merge video UGC with ARG successfully, e.g., users will connect via video conference to engage with branded content. Video conferences will become programming when edited right.
7. Film studios will drift away from traditional sequels/remakes and renaissance with new franchises – think next Harry Potter, Dark Knight, Hangover.
8. Ad agencies and major lifestyle/consumer brands will dive into social media acquisitions, create more innovation incubators and buy consumer content/video sites to roll-up audiences. Think Y Combinator owned by Adidas. Similarly, talent agencies will launch incubators to find next production/distribution efficiencies and create more and more backend strategies versus faltering pay or play.
9. In the gaming world, “Angry Birds” success will be remodeled (usually badly), but will also create new initiatives to merchandise media on a 360 level, i.e., games, films, tv will finally leverage their assets fully outside of release windows. Pop-up events will be “demanded” as exclusive media and merch will be next big thing.
10. Digital content will become vastly more personalized. Once discovered (see #4), smartly aggregated and tied into social (e.g., Flipboard), users will start visiting fewer and fewer niche sites, plus heavy Facebook…

The Ten Spot: Nov 30, 2009

via The Media Equation – For Media, a Sunset Is Followed Quickly by a Sunrise – NYT

For those of us who work in Manhattan media, it means that a life of occasional excess and prerogative has been replaced by a drum beat of goodbye speeches with sheet cakes and cheap sparkling wine. It’s a wan reminder that all reigns are temporary, that the court of self-appointed media royalty was serving at the pleasure of an advertising economy that itself was built on inefficiency and excess. Google fixed that.

via The $20m Actor…Who Needs ‘Em? | ZDONK

I like to think of it like this: Every time a studio green lights a movie for production, it’s like they’re investing in a company. Some companies are run by charismatic leaders who are proven winners ($20 million actors), but if that company’s agenda and business model (script) are weak, then it doesn’t matter who the CEO is. I have to imagine that every Fortune 500 company started out with a great concept, not some name brand face.

via Spotify CEO Confident For 2010 U.S. Launch

“Subscription doesn’t work on its own because that’s been proven for 10 years as well,” Ek continued. “But the combination of an ad pricing model and a subscription model does. So far, in terms of Spotify, we haven’t actually spent any money at all on marketing. But what we have done is that we have taken a lot of people in using the free service, they start using the free service and they find attractive options such as becoming a paid user because they wanted to have [the service] on their mobile phone or they wanted to have higher volume quality… and they’ve done so now at the scale where we can say that we’re the biggest subscription service in Europe.” Read more >>