I’ve just arrived in Auckland, New Zealand for the X|Media|Lab Keynote Conference on “Commercialising Ideas“. Tomorrow, I speak on “Looking for Ideas.” Hmm, ponder, ponder - when evaluating ideas for entertainment and commerce, there are a number of places to look and traps to avoid. I’ll upload the preso tomorrow after the event…

The Big Idea asked me some warm up questions, excerpted below:

1. How do you see the economic model working for independent films in the near future? Do you think a general cinema release will become limited to Tent pole movies while indies focus more on digital distribution… or are film festivals going to help keep a cinema release as a viable option?

Independent films will continue to suffer over the next few years. With so many of the major studios shuttering or closing their indie labels, only smaller micro-distributors will be willing to take small chances on these films. Analog or traditional production costs will drop down to near-digital, i.e., cheap, budgets. Indies will still perform well in festivals, which will suffer hard to keep them alive; but it will be the breakout indies like “Little Miss Sunshine” and similar that will make enough money to make it to the awards. In effect, they will function as actors/directors/above-the-line award vehicles, and hence pick up a little box office loot, and a trophy or two.

On the other hand, smarter, indie distributors will learn how to roll-up niches of indie audiences - i.e., grow a living database of engaged users who will show up to these films in theaters. They’ll work the smaller exhibitors, cable and on-demand channels to channel very specific returns, then package them to create niche brands. So instead of a next-generation Miramax running all kinds of product, these new distributors will concentrate on very tight niches, then leverage those to enter other niches of content and consumers.

Big releases and multiplexes will be tentpole-centric, with the indies who cross-over peeking around the curtains from the smaller screens. Digital distribution will level the dvd window, but not help indies in the theatrical department, which is still the economic driver for the film’s entire run.

2. Do you see this model of multiple-platform marketing being successfully applied to other entertainment or educational media such as publishing or television?

All entertainment (and possible distance learning/education) will have to go multiplatform and social media to survive. You’ll start to even see multi-level marketing (MLM or Amway-style) begin to drive entertainment consumption, too. Again, audience-building, and moving them across all the platforms.

3. What are the main factors in determining the best timeline for release of a film across multiple delivery platforms?

Theatrical is always based on competitive landscape, and/or if there’s a seasonal or school-event tie-in. Other windows’ timelines are less important. Day and date releases typically cannibalize whichever stronger window they’re in, but we’ll see more and more that windows are shrinking: a failed movie will move quicker to straight on-demand as opposed to a quiet window into packaged dvd. We’ll also see more marrying of dvd-mailer and on-demand, expanding content reach for at-home viewers.

Read more at The Big Idea…