With the new Apple iPad receiving an iHype or iYawn from the tech and media communities, a former colleague and Applephile, Patrick Kearney, suggested that Apple was crazy not to just acquire Adobe and own/integrate Flash. I counterpointed via the socialnet, that Adobe would be more integral to Google’s apps and offer a serious checkmate on Steve Jobs’ ability to close out his Apple hardware and software ecosystem.

The Google Value in Owning Adobe:

1. Keeps Google intrinsic to Apple, especially if Bing replaces Google Search across Safari, iPhone, iPad browsers and devices.
2. Adobe owns Omniture, an online marketing, data mining and analytics company, which it picked up in September 2009. Like Google’s acquisition of Urchin which became an invite-only Google Analytics and is now free for anyone. Omniture could be the premium or pro solution for big brands that need the stepabove solution, and of course crave CRM. It’s more behavioral, offers paid SEO across all search platforms, so it fits accretively.
3. Launch Google lite version of Photoshop and Dreamweaver (and…?) for its Google Apps. Many people are moving over to Gimp, an open source Photoshop design app, from outdated versions of Adobe’s Photoshop. This would democratize the products, while still offering premium versions that require a monthly subscription to remove the contextual ads and continue to innovate the product features for power-users before they go mainstream and free. Think of it as R&D for the premium, paying crowd who want the full version, and then as features become common, they go to the open, Google app public. This model of lite versus full versions is working well for the Apple Apps Store, and could move to an online subscription model to avoid distribution fulfillment and other retail packaging costs.
4. Ownership of Flash enhances YouTube’s dominance in online video. Pretty clear, Google labs up Flash internally and figures out ways to make it pay out more for its slowly monetizing video flagship. YouTube’s choice advertisers get premium Flash benefits; innovations trickle down to other top UGC performers.
5. Google Phones benefit from mobile improvements to Flash. The Android and Nexus One become more marketable, and Google licenses Flash to the Blackberries and other mobile players.
6. And, of course, the obvious: every media-savvy site uses Flash and it rolls up 75% of online video, plus marketers like flashy display banners, so Google owns more of the food chain - from media co’s to video players to brands and their agencies looking to stand out in a very noisy internet environment.

2009 provided the best non-documentary film of the year in “The Hurt Locker” - it seems timely to take a few heroic stabs at predicting where media will be in the new year. Before 2009 times out in Los Angeles, a breakout of Media & Entertainment possibilities:

1. DVD - “Hurt Locker” is an apt metaphor for the film studios’ DVD departments, who had a substantial off-year, given the rise of online video distribution, gaming, rival HD dvd players and an economy that rewards a cheap theatrical ticket versus waiting for the long tail/queue of home video. Where they go next: Expect more depletion as consumers realize more and more that they really “can wait” for films to open in cheaper and more on-demand windows. Good Ron Grover/Business Week article on Netflix v. The Big Studios with colleague Ted Sarandos.
2. Consolidation - with Comcast finally getting its content networks in NBC/Universal, expect other big communication fish, who want to play in cable, to step up acquisition efforts, especially as traditional media joint ventures like Fox/NBC’s Hulu are growing stronger in online video. Hulu’s growth disrupts the tech hierarchy, so expect Microsoft and potentially Verizon to make a play that strengthens their content platforms while also giving them access to revenue-bearing cable networks. Where they go next: Verizon is definitely in talks around Viacom (who also should buy(back) Summit Entertainment fwiw), which would put AT&T in play - and anti-trust play for that matter - with potentially Viacom or some form of JV with Sony; or rolling up the mini-majors, Microsoft doubles down on its XBox audience with a Fox (a stretch) or Lionsgate (a good fit) acquisition. And yes, Microsoft and the others have shown little interest in owning content versus distribution, but with Google tied into Vevo + YouTube, and Comcast with NBC/Uni, it starts to make sense to own a production/distribution media co entity as a block or future trade in the ongoing consortium wars. Expect Discovery Channels and Fox to continue to buy while things are relatively cheap, with Liberty Media involved for guidance, and Peter Chernin potentially overseeing NBC/Uni or any one of the other consolidations.
3. Hollywood Talent - As written up in the past on “starpower brown-out,” entertainment and most media is moving away from the individual artist scenario and into the filmmaker stage. From the $500 production of “Panic Attack” which became a $30M film greenlight to the Stephenie Meyer “Twilight” Summit saga to Paramount’s “Paranormal Activity” grosses and “Star Trek,” Sony’s “District 9,” etc. - everyone is looking for the next big thing before it hits, but on the storytelling side instead of the usual talent/talking head side. If Tiger Woods is any example with his sponsor withdrawals, brands and big studios, will be looking for genuine or authentic (or ensemble) films that tell a good story well. Where they go next: They go to the agencies and structure  some form of bargaining position with less upfront and pay-or-play deals, including more backend equity and merchandising rights. Talent - including the J.J. Abrams and Tim Kring of “Heroes” - also begin creating more original IP that they can sell independently of their studio overhead deals. More Mel Gibsons, fewer Eddie Murphys - if that makes sense - going forward.
4. Personalized Content withinTechnology - With Apple’s highly expected iGuide or iTablet, Google Nexus One Phones and faster/stronger/better Wii’s, XBoxes and PS3/4s, consumers will find themselves spending more than 40% of their time online when not at work. The FiOS or U-Verse will offer more content than ever available, which will change consumer behavior - they simply will not have time for 5 much less 500 channels, and will turn to online to sort, niche and program their viewing around what their like-peers enjoy - think Boxee model here, which Comcast, DirecTV or TiVo buys. Where they go next: With all of these content inputs coming primary out of the tech space, traditional programming and brand advertising will change their models (slowly, although good to see Pepsi pull out of the Superbowl recently) to connect with the interactive or hyperinteractive crowds. To those who still favor a lean-back, couch potato lifestyle, it will still exist, but its metamorphosis will be personalized programming with either lean back or forward approaches.  If you think advertising CPMs/analytics online is a hearty business for Google, look forward to a bigger market when full-form content gets extremely searchable and programmable.
5. Content Windows - fewer theatrical releases and more pressure from all of the things that have been hurting DVD are going to force tighter windows, which will equate to lower initial returns, throwing off first run and second run/home entertainment revenues further. All of these predictions basically integrate together: consolidation, technology and talent reductions will reduce production costs, forcing films and series to perform immediately as content drivers, then be pushed into much less lucrative library pools. Where they go next: Consumers will see films and tv pilots as snapshots, unless like “The Dark Knight,” there are ARG’s supporting long-term audience capture. Content windows will ultimately be less important than content niches, whose niche audiences protect the media they like by buying it in every form available. Think “South Park,” “Family Guy” and the sinkholes of activity between the X-Men films. Hollywood or M&E will finally realize that they should have been actively trying to aggregate their audiences instead of dropping them between films, sequels and DVD windows. The labels’ 360 mentality will become a living/breathing habit for studios who want their brands - i.e., their films, not their corporate names - to have staying power.

That wraps up 2009 for New Medici - to newfound success and innovation in 2010!

A potential interactive page-turner - think iTunes for magazines, books (much less multimedia sexy) and especially daily print.  Time Inc. and The Wonder Factory put together a demo on a HP touchscreen, and for those with tablets, potential online subscription and micro-transactions loom.

Via The Death Of The Blog Post - Smashing Magazine, there’s a discussion of how much the design of individual posts adds value to the read - similar to strong copy, quality posts versus mass-news, pop cultural clippings (aka standard blogs).

Is it the timeliness, frequency or relative exclusivity or breaking news factor that makes certain articles into reader magnets or SEO payloads?

RSS readers are jam-packed with articles every day, and chances are, the articles that don’t get your full attention will get lost in the crowd. Keep your short musings and thoughts for Posterous and Twitter, and spend some real time hand-crafting well-thought-out articles. You’ll satisfy both yourself and your readers.

On an altruistic side, blogs and blog nets create open discussion, communication and the free sharing of news, but if you opt for more design, will the quality of the writing always be premium?

Or does more design - see the Gizmodo/Techcrunch quote after the jump - mean continued budget losses at big publishing houses, tied to high-priced writers? Yes, the design and publishing world will move to the upcoming Tablet like the music labels beat a path to iTunes.

Spielberg: Have Movies Will Travel…. Again? - BusinessWeek

Even before Steven Spielberg’s newly reformulated Dreamworks SKG makes its first film, his studio is moving for a third time – well, sort of. BusinessWeek has learned that the Dreamworks operation, headed by Spielberg and producing partner Stacey Snider, is moving the rights to show its movies on pay TV from Starz (LMDIA) to Showtime (CBS).

The Hot New Business Of Virtual Goods - SAI

NYT: Analysts estimate that virtual goods could bring in a billion dollars in the United States and around $5 billion worldwide this year — all for things that, aside from perhaps a few hours of work by an artist and a programmer, cost nothing to produce. “It’s a fantastic business,” said Jeremy Liew of Lightspeed Venture Partners, a venture capital firm that has invested $10 million in several virtual goods companies. “Because it’s digital, the marginal cost for every one you sell is zero, so you have 100 percent margins.”

FunnyorDie.com: ‘SNL’ for the online crowd - LAT

Since its launch, the site has transcended the initial hype of Ferrell and McKay’s debut video, “The Landlord” (with 66.7-million views and counting). Now it’s a fledgling new media studio with a CEO, a Silicon Valley office and a reported ($15-million investment. (Though the site is making money, it hasn’t turned a profit, according to those familiar with its finances. McKay calls it “our not-for-profit theater.”) For the legions of comic unknowns out there, the site offers another way to network and possibly get discovered. For the A-listers, it is a creative outlet, set apart from the conglomerates running entertainment, that may not earn them a dime but pays off with street cred on the comedy scene.)  

Chart: U.S. Virtual Goods Revenue Ready To Explode | SAI

The virtual goods market in the U.S. is ready to take off. Right now, the U.S. only has 28% of the total market. By 2013, the U.S. will make up 41% of the market with $2.5 billion in sales, according to research from Piper Jaffray.

The Decade of Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple | Fortune

He’s a visionary, but he’s grounded in reality too, closely monitoring Apple’s various operational and market metrics. He isn’t motivated by money, says friend Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500). The financial results have been nothing short of astounding — for Apple and for Jobs. The company was worth about $5 billion in 2000, just before Jobs unleashed Apple’s groundbreaking “digital lifestyle” strategy, understood at the time by few critics. Today, at about $170 billion, Apple is slightly more valuable than Google.

CollegeHumor May Go to Ben Silverman Venture | Advertising Age

The deal would have Connected Ventures, parent of CollegeHumor and just-launched TV-production arm Notional, folded into Electus. [...] Connected Ventures is at the core of those content efforts, but Mr. Diller is said to lack confidence that the group can effectively monetize the properties it creates. Last week, Mr. Diller said investment in original content would account for “less than 10%” of the $1.8 billion the company will have in cash over the next few years.

The End of  ‘Oprah’ as We Know Her: Daytime Diva Giving Up Syndie Talk Show & Moving It To Her Cable Network in 2011| Deadline

One of the biggest questions in the TV biz has been when, and even if, Oprah Winfrey would give up her daytime syndicated talk show to focus on OWN, her long delayed Oprah Winfrey Network in 70 million homes that was supposed to launch in place of the Discovery Health Channel as a joint venture between Winfrey and Discovery Communications.  

As Media & Entertainment continues to try to innovate to support new platforms like Facebook, Twitter (and Google), there continues to be new research that resurrects mobility, i.e., cell phones.

It’s not just the iPhones that are driving your studio I.T. divisions insane, but if you really want to go global with your media footprint, you no longer can ignore developing hard for mobile platforms.

The mobile runway is open, but will be getting very crowded; which is okay, because there’s no longer a walled garden - or to use my ‘runway’ metaphor, a secured airport - so there’s plenty of room to take-off with mobile.

• 10x number of new mobile devices each computing cycle (smatphones, Kindles, Nooks, Couriers, tablets, netbooks)
• Mobile adoption curve is 8x steeper than desktop
• iPhone + iTouch ecosystem fastest hardware user growth in tech history

After the jump, the Morgan Stanley presentation from Mary Meeker’s Web 2.0 presentation…

With Rupert Murdoch’s mention yesterday of making consumers pay for all content, no matter the relative quality, e.g., WSJ, NY Post, Telegraph, Fox News, etc. has again paved the way for a heap of dicussion about “pay walls.” With the WSJ’s 1 million users bringing in $65 million per year, and the FT free-to-pay model working, Murdoch is trying to lead by supply, and see if demand and the rest of the competition accept the anti-free model. While this may momentarily resuscitate some of the publishing models, while recreating the cable model where free tv became paid, will it also curtail more voices or media navigators (read: niche blogs and news aggregators).  

In the spirit of covering topics that my readers are interested in, today’s blog topic comes from a good friend and former colleague of mine (Ed) who wrote to me recently asking if I could write a “how-to” article of sorts about how to navigate the angel investor waters. In these challenging economic times, coupled with the complex landscape found in the venture and private equity worlds, angel investors occupy a very worthwhile niche within the start-up ecosystem. They offer a combination of funding (at lower amounts) and hands-on assistance that the majority of bigger money shops can’t or don’t offer - although as we’ve read recently a handful of them are starting to set up “seed bet” funds.  

From the latest E3 announcements - Project Natal - where “You are the Controller.”  In an effort to blow past the Wii accelerometer, Microsoft’s anti-controller approach literally changes the game on console gaming. Many believed that Microsoft and Sony Playstation would have to merely copy the Wii remote to stay competitive, but with this latest “Minority Report” like gameplay (”sans remote”), one wonders if there is a competitive next step or manuever possible. With Spielberg as part of the E3 Announcement - the same Spielberg who partnered to create “Boom Blox” with Nintendo - the only issue now is workability - will the device match the demo?

Per SAI comments: Natal motion control has a special non-light sensitive sensor, an RGB sensor, a depth sensor, a multi-array microphone and a special processor, and will be packaged with future Xbox consoles. Definitely a very competitive game-changer to the Nintendo Wii.

Last night the good people over at Dealmaker Media L.A. hosted the latest installment of their strategy & mixer series at the William Morris offices in Beverly Hills. The event centered around a panel discussion moderated by Rich Wolpert, Managing Director of The Mailroom Fund discussing the similarities and differences between the start up and investment communities in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles. The panel was a good mix of investors (both angel and institutional) and entrepreneurs — Mike Jones, newly minted COO of MySpace and former CEO of Tsavo Media, Joey Carson, President & CEO of Hollywood Interactive Group, Jason Oberfest, SVP, Business Development at MySpace and Mark Suster, Partner at GRP Partners.

Here are some of my take-aways from the event:

• In general, L.A.-based start ups are more monetization oriented while Silicon Valley start ups tend to place more emphasis on product development and technology.
• Due in part to geographical differences between the two areas, the L.A. start up and venture scene is more disparate and, save for Santa Monica, has no real nerve center (a la Sand Hill Road up north). And as an extension of this reality, there is also a common perception that L.A. does not have the depth and breadth of technology talent that Silicon Valley has, although there are members of the L.A. community (including the L.A. CTO Forum) that are actively working to change this perception.
• Those working in the start up community in Silicon Valley are much more pre-occupied with the equity portion of compensation packages than those in L.A., with one theory being that so many of them know and/or have heard of many others in their position making millions of dollars off of their options - which in turn leads to something along the lines of a sense of entitlement.  
  

MySpace’s “loss of face” to Facebook, a rough and tumble economy and a pivotal change of company seats, i.e., Peter Chernin, at News Corp (and MySpace’s own COO and senior technical team’s exodus) has contributed to a major executive facelift of MySpace. While their track record of change with Jeff Berman as President of Sales and Marketing and pitch towards being framed as a “social portal” has helped, the inability to keep up with Facebook’s growth rate and product innovation has forced change at MySpace. With the forthcoming announcement (today) by new CDO Jon Miller of former Facebook COO, Owen Van Natta, to the CEO spot, Fox and Murdoch are betting on social competitiveness to regain position. After the jump, we’ll look at Van Natta, and outside choice, Jason Calacanis’ recommendations.  

Call it “Micro Diaries of a Mad Twitterer,” but early 30s Gary Vaynerchuk has amassed a meta-canon of video blogs (aka vlogs) and Twitter-Facebook updates. Specifically, these are not normal ‘human’ numbers of vlogs or Twitter updates - GaryVee (GV), as he goes by, has 208,000+ Twitter followers and upwards of 20,000 once-counted Facebook fans. He’s creating a legacy of video bloggers - Samantha Ettus at Obsessedtv.com - to build on his “personal branding” meets “social business” platform. And the recent non-digital coup: a book deal with HarperStudio - 10 social branding books for a 7-figure deal. A breakdown of the deal, the frequency dilemma for GV, and his growing personal brand network - after the jump…  

Chalk this up to a little next generation (i.e., teens) or the international community who travel often, but it seems everyone under 20 and those abroad from Australia/UK/New Zealand/etc. are dropping their iPhones in favor of iPod Touches. Now with Skype and a good wi-fi connection, there’s no cost calling plans. How’s that for innovating your office, kids’ utility fees or travel abroad access…?  

Sasha Baron Cohen’s Brüno - the Universal and Media Rights Capital (MRC) film - promises to push the boundaries of taste in a very cash-positive way when it opens on July 10th. Below, the “Red Band” restricted trailer - MySpace video is on-and-off, so via TrailerAddict:

After the jump, a comparison of Brüno v. Borat with 14 Brüno aggregated clips to boot…  

Not to crowd the ‘bad/depressing news’ queue, but a recent report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, or ITIF, puts the US 6th in innovation and competitiveness - behind Singapore, Sweden and South Korea. 15th in higher education attainment. 8th in advanced degree education - behind France, Spain and Russia. 5th in corporate investment into research and development (R&D) - behind German and South Korea; making it 17th in percent change over last seven years. And the worst news of the study: the US made the least progress in innovation/competition over the last decade of any of the 40 countries in the report.  

Reviewing Portfolio and Fast Company - our two favorite innovation/business intelligence-oriented magazines - this month, some novel reads:

• Boy Wonder: Chris Hughes’ first two acts - creating Facebook and launching Barack Obama online. The evolution of constructive social networking that actually creates value.
• Maximum Security - Best ways to protect your position and jobs to be in over the next decade, per exec-search firm Korn/Ferry.
• Lululemon’s Cult of Selling - An internal employee constitution, 900+ yoga-teacher evangelists, and a required office read in Oprah-endorsed book The Secret.
• The Steve Jobs Economy - Worth $5.7B individually, Mr. Jobs’ worth to Apple is estimated at a staggering $30.8B.
• What Should I Do with My Life, Now? - Po Bronson’s re-take on the soul/career-search, knocking down 7 fallacies in the 6 years since his original book was published.
• All Apologies - Kurt Cobain’s music isn’t finding the same licensing opportunities as one would expect. With only $50k from Guitar Hero (versus $5M to Aerosmith) and $50M to Courtney Love, time to review the math.  
  

Is DVD on the downturn? During a recent lunch with one of my favorite studio digital media chiefs, we discussed the future of home entertainment - DVDs, Blu-Ray, Netflix, hulu, On Demand, digital downloads, you get the basic idea. We mused what the return would be in the next year or two when more of the consumer world is looking for at-home (”digital home”) entertainment, and not tuned into buying packaged DVDs or renting from brick-and-mortars like Blockbuster. Do people actually still buy and rent this way still, you ask? Yes, but they’re moving towards the $4 on-demand, 24-hour window rental - which is 1/4 what studios are used to based on the current retail environment. So how do they survive?  

Who knew the economy was tanking, and yet there are jobs still out there:

• Director, Business Development at Lucasfilm
• Executive Director, Marketing at MySpace Music
• Director, Entertainment Publicity at Lucasfilm
• Story Artist at Pixar Animation Studios
• Vice President, Digital Marketing at Fox Filmed Entertainment
• Entertainment Product Manager at CBS Mobile Entertainment
• Digital Campaign Dev&Ops Manager at Participant Media

Check them out at New Medici Jobs… We’ll also be highlighting the most innovative headhunters/recruiters in the media+lifestyle market. Submit your favorites to info [at] newmedici.com.

How much is your Twitter account name worth (not your Twitter following or value of Twits) to you? As an individual, a personality/ celeb or a real brand? I recently took a drive through the oh-so-simple registration, and there’s still a lot of top level twits (TLTs?) available. Remember all of those domain names you couldn’t buy because domain squatters were holding them ransom? Well, my prediction is that the great land grab - this time around a kind of Twitfest Destiny - is back. The year of the Twitter squatters (”Twatters”) is upon us.  

How’s this for innovative spending during a recession? Get a new Blackberry Storm for you and someone special at $50 each. In New Medici’s Marketplace section, we look forward to bringing you innovative buys and items of interest. The original story (@ $100/per Storm) was gleaned from Silicon Alley Insider, re buy a Blackberry Storm, get one free, with a 2-year commitment for $200, i.e., one Storm for $100. In need of upgrading two Blackberry 8830s to Storms, once the NYTimes David Pogue article fracas cleared, I would recommend this newer offer. Details after the jump…  

As stealth luxury becomes more and more vogue, i.e., brown (or black) bag shopping at high-end stores to mask purchases; so, too, will there be more online buying. Discrete shopping with north of 50% discounting. Gilt Groupe with $5M in funding from Matrix Partners, a new CEO in Susan Lyne from Martha Stewart Omnimedia, and a partnership with the Council of Fashion Designers of America, looks poised to weather the retail storm with its online, invitation-only sample sales.