New Medici 2011 Predictions

1. Cords will be cut – cable and satellite companies will have to package internet bandwidth with channel programming to keep sub fees north of $100. Cable and other triple players will move to provide bandwidth to all devices – think Mifi for everything as an upsell with loss of cable. In 2012, all television programming will be available day and date via web/mobile.
2. Netflix will double (or more) its sub base with streaming model, and become an even higher value acquisition target; it now currently needs to figure out social media to close all gaps with Amazon.
3. Resurfacing of digital media IPOs (or accretive acquisitions): think Spotify with US penetration, Facebook, Zynga, Groupon, Flipboard and possibly Pandora.
4. Music and media discovery will be most valuable digital utility, with people programming their lives – and transparently tracking their consumption (personal CRM or our “time clock” theory), which will be shared, of course, via social media.
5. 3D will rise at home, decrease in theaters – more television programming and surplus of high quality 3DTVs with many ITV channels also moving into 3D to differentiate.
6. Apple will ditch optical drives on all but highest end laptops (wireless/Bluetooth SuperDrives to follow; Apple to move into 5TB home networks servers and own cloud ecosystem) and desktops. iPad 2 with 3G/4G package will sell 1.5x original unit and knock out all touch players save Android. iPad 2 will merge video UGC with ARG successfully, e.g., users will connect via video conference to engage with branded content. Video conferences will become programming when edited right.
7. Film studios will drift away from traditional sequels/remakes and renaissance with new franchises – think next Harry Potter, Dark Knight, Hangover.
8. Ad agencies and major lifestyle/consumer brands will dive into social media acquisitions, create more innovation incubators and buy consumer content/video sites to roll-up audiences. Think Y Combinator owned by Adidas. Similarly, talent agencies will launch incubators to find next production/distribution efficiencies and create more and more backend strategies versus faltering pay or play.
9. In the gaming world, “Angry Birds” success will be remodeled (usually badly), but will also create new initiatives to merchandise media on a 360 level, i.e., games, films, tv will finally leverage their assets fully outside of release windows. Pop-up events will be “demanded” as exclusive media and merch will be next big thing.
10. Digital content will become vastly more personalized. Once discovered (see #4), smartly aggregated and tied into social (e.g., Flipboard), users will start visiting fewer and fewer niche sites, plus heavy Facebook…