3Dios: Next Steps for 3D Film

From this morning’s 3D Next conference in Los Angeles, a diverse panel from Michael Stroud/ iHollywood on the future of 3D films.

The 3D industry that has created quite a boon for studios and exhibitors, while creating an area of potential upsell or backlash for consumers.

Panel: Next Steps for 3D Film: In the wake of the huge success of Avatar and Alice in Wonderland, 3D appears to have a secure future in cinema. The question is just how big: the appeal outside of kids, sci fi and horror remains unclear; and there’s still the dearth of theaters. An examination of the likely future.

• Greg Foster, Chairman and President, Filmed Entertainment, IMAX
• Ben Urquhart, VP, Post-Production, Focus Features
• Brian Rogers, Producer, Godzilla (2012)
• Keith Collea, Stereographer, The Mortician (2010)
• Bob Johnston, Stereoscopic Producer, My Bloody Valentine 3D (2009)
• Michael Stroud, CEO, iHollywood Forum, moderating

IMAX’s Greg Foster devoured this panel as his company’s technology has quickly, and with an exclusive advantage, been all over this relatively new version of 3D IP.

The general overlay is that studios and exhibitors are working out the math and quality of 3D film releases, with the general cons being low quality conversions from 2D to 3D (Clash of the Titans), and films not meriting 3D, thus ruining the theatrical “3D experience” through low quality consumer overexposure.

Artistic or filmmaker integrity is also a key movement – does the story require 3D or do the effects? Will studio production heads created “forced 3D” by pitching 3D to barter a greenlighted film?

And as consumers become used to 3DTV in their homes, will they unburden themselves for indie or serious dramas tickets – without or with 3D – in theaters? And for how long at premium pricing?

Greg Foster:

• 3D is definitely happening, lots of turnover in next year or two. Groups that adapt will succeed. Notable exceptions: The Dark Knight and Inception were too dark for current 3D technology.
• Re 3D blowback – studios do not price films, handled by exhibitors (anti-trust); prices have worked their way up. Hasn’t been enough data or sampling to make definitive pricing. Price sensitivity and elasticity tied to content; plus, too much of a good thing.
• John Wooden syndrome: greatest coach, and who followed him(?). Avatar was an anomaly; it was designed, created and wielded by Jim Cameron – it had that extra secret sauce that only one film in a generation has; very hard to follow. Avatar as a benchmark is a very big mistake. It’s such an outlier – production, resource, execution levels – not a good comparable. And Jim Cameron’s not going to “phone it in” on Avatar 2.
• B&W to color, should everything become 3D. Only a certain kind of movie – taking a movie that doesn’t belong in 3D (a forced greenlight at studio); creates a rolling loop of why-are-we-doing-this?
• 2D to 3D conversion has 2-3 year window; midpoint or gray area confusion is happening now.
• Studio greenlight decisions are reactive to get someone’s vote (forced 3D). Exhibitors in competitive zones will likely pick the 3D movies.
• Willing to bet: 2D Inception and Twilight Saga’s Eclipse are both in top 5 for box office successes. Every frame of Inception has Chris Nolan’s fingerprint on it.
• When you change midstream, it’s ripe for issues; the odds of having a challenge rise.
• Dearth of theaters. IMAX has some exclusivities. In China, they have 4000 screens; cinema is one of their cultural initiatives; the Chinese government has said they will have 40,000 screens in next 5-10 years.

Bob Johnston:

• Strong demand on this media; not enough cameras in the world to supply content for 3DTVs and digital screens.
• We have to come to a happy medium with conversion. $15-100k per minute. Nurture content with whatever financial means we have.
• DirecTV is going to have 3 x 3D channels, a lot of repeats without the cameras.
• On indie level, horror and music work. If you shoot 3D, you get 2D for free; you get over-the-top and future-proofing of your content.

Ben Urquhart:

• 3D doesn’t work for 7-camera, jump shoots like those created by director Michael Bay.
• Quoted his boss, James Schamus at Focus Features: “Theatrical is just a big advertisement for DVD,” re that 3D films beget 3DTV DVD releases, which potentially reboots the degraded DVD marketplace.

We’re curious if the corollary is:

3D is just a big advertisement for special effects.

More to come on this nascent IP tech field in our upcoming 3Dios.com blog.