What do Adrien Brody, Three 6 Mafia, and Shakespeare in Love have in common? They all won Oscars.  And you didn’t think they would. That’s right.  At the end of the day, the human brain is far too limited to ascertain with any true degree of certainty who will end up with the austere, naked, Bruce Willis-meets-the Tin Man-lookin’-fella at the end of the night.

But the thing is:  It feels really, really good when you’re right.

Editor’s Note: This is our first post for Reelist.com - Hollywood attitude with a heavy dose of realism: films/visionaries/awards. Stay tuned for more from Jonathan and other fine (and realistic) film writers.

So without further ado, we offer our list of potential winners with an air of unbridled smugness, knowing full well that our hubris shall surely be our downfall.  Or, in other words, the 35 dollars in the Oscar pool will go to the friend whose favorite film is the Matthew Broderick version of Godzilla.

Best Picture – Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, The Reader, Frost/Nixon, Milk

We’ll start off with the big one.  Most of the experts out there seem to have already whittled it down to a Benjamin Button vs. Slumdog Millionaire battle royale.  We won’t lie:  we really like Button, despite some rather startling similarities between it and another film you may have seen by the same screenwriter, Eric Roth.  But here’s the thing:  how do you vote against a tea-serving shnook from the slums who triumphs over all that is evil in this world and wins the love of his life?  You don’t dare.  Slumdog Millionaire.  Game over.

Best Director – Danny Boyle, Stephen Daldry, David Fincher, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant

We don’t have a clue, and neither do you.  According to Variety, this is only the fifth time in Oscar history that all the best picture nominees have had their director nominated as well.  The field is crowded with names well-loved by the Academy: Howard’s already won once (A Beautiful Mind), Daldry’s been nominated for three out of the four films he’s ever directed, Van Sant flirted with glory for Good Will Hunting, but was defeated by some guy who made a movie about a really big boat.  Then there’s Boyle, who just won the Golden Globe (among others), and David Fincher, who…well, he’s David Fincher.  No further argument necessary.

We’re going with Boyle, for the admittedly lame reason that historically the best picture win goes hand in hand with best director.   Fincher may have had a serious shot at it, if not for the fact that he’s apparently not too well-liked by the folks doing the voting.

Best Actor – Richard Jenkins, Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke

Are you familiar with the Strathairn Effect?  It’s the feeling you get when you see someone on the red carpet who seems tragically out of place.  Most of the world will be experiencing this phenomenon when Richard Jenkins strolls up to Joan Rivers.  Meanwhile, Brad Pitt and Frank Langella will be competing against each other in what should, by this point, be a new category:  Best Performance That By All Rights Deserves To be Shared With The Make-up And/Or Visual Effects Department.  Neither has a prayer.  It’s either Penn or Rourke.  In a real fight, we’re picking Rourke.  In an acting fight, we’re picking Penn…but that’s not how the Academy will see it.  Everyone loves a happy ending, so expect Rourke, the real-life slumdog of the show, to pull out a resounding (and certainly not undeserved) victory.

Best Actress – Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet

Here’s a good rule of thumb:  If you ever find yourself in a category alongside Meryl Streep for anything, chances are you’re not as good as she is at it.  Thing is, even though this marks her 15th nomination, she hasn’t won since 1983.  Winslet’s been biding her time; this marks her 6th nomination (she’s yet to win), and if her night of double-fisting at the Golden Globes is any indication, this is her year.

Best Supporting Actress – Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei

Not since Rocky Balboa prepared to defend America’s honor against Dolph Lundgren has someone trained herself for war the way Viola Davis did for her epic confrontation with Ms. Streep in Doubt.  With only 10 minutes of screen-time, Davis came to play.  And did she ever.  Lips a-quivering, mucus a-flowing, she storms her way so confidently into your psyche that you’re shocked to discover that this was, after all, a supporting performance.  She lost at the Golden Globes to Winslet, who oddly enough had been nominated for her performance in The Reader; the same performance that the Academy deemed a leading role.  With Winslet out of the way, Davis’ path to the podium is clear.

Best Supporting Actor – Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon

We’d like to take a moment to single out Michael Shannon.  This is a talented man, and we’ve been rooting him on for years in films he’s far too good for.  You want range?  Check out a film about 9 people saw called Blackbird (watch only his scenes, do not watch the rest of the movie).  Then check out a film called Bug (watch 20 minutes, it’s more than enough).  If you haven’t seen Revolutionary Road yet (and no, you shouldn’t), just watch this.  We’re hoping his newfound exposure will earn him the roles he so justly deserves.

This is not Shannon’s year, however.  And we’re more than OK with that.  Strangely, the one award that offers no suspense whatsoever will surely prove the most satisfying.  When Heath Ledger wins Best Supporting Actor, the only person who might be surprised is Josh Brolin’s mother.  But for the millions who cherished Ledger’s brain-meltingly-brilliant performance as the Joker, it will be a chance to smile, cry, and applaud for a man who, it can truly be said, left it all on the screen.  Lucky us.